With the Federal Government being the largest U.S. employer, Elon Musk’s apparent free reign on axing Federal jobs will devastate financial stability for potentially hundreds of thousands of people. Who will likely bear the brunt? What workforce demographic will be hardest hit? Federal data points to the older and Black workforce.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was created on January 20 by an executive order signed by President Donald Trump. Musk donated over a quarter of a billion dollars to Trump’s presidential campaign and has had free reign to government systems, including the U.S. treasury. Yesterday, a federal judge temporarily blocked Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency from accessing Treasury Department payment systems, citing the risk of “irreparable harm.”
Musk and his team of software engineers are tasked with “modernizing federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.” All under 25, his engineer team includes the now re-hired Marko Elez, who has had administrator access to IT systems handling tax payments. Elez resigned earlier this week after being connected to racist and eugenicist social media posts but was subsequently re-hired by Musk.
Who Loses? Demographics of Vulnerability
Federal workforce data shows the federal workforce is older than the American workforce at large–more than 42% were aged 50 or older, compared to 33% of the U.S. labor force. Employees under 30 represented just over seven percent of the federal workforce compared to almost 20% in the U.S. labor force, while employees between the ages of 30 and 49 made up about half of the workforce. This data excludes the legislative or judicial branches, the intelligence community, the U.S. Postal Service, foreign service officers or locally employed staff within the Department of State or uniformed military personnel.
Further breakdown of federal workforce demographics shows individuals who identified as part of a racial or ethnic minority group represented 40% of the federal workforce. Nearly 19% of the federal workforce identified as Black compared to 13% of the U.S. labor force.
The report also documents that people of color occupy a significant percentage of positions from the GS-2 to GS-6 level; grade levels typically comprise lower and entry-level administrative positions. White employees comprise much of the workforce above the GS-7 level, consisting of mid-level technical and first-level supervisory positions and top-level technical and supervisory positions.
If Musk is successful, statistical averages would indicate that the groups most impacted by the cuts will be older workers and Blacks–two groups that face the highest hurdles to employment opportunities.
Age + Race + Gender: A Triple Burden
An October 2024 report by AARP cited almost two-thirds (64 percent) of workers age 50-plus have reported seeing or experiencing age discrimination in the workplace. For Black older workers, 75% report seeing or experiencing age discrimination. Of those who have seen or experienced age discrimination, 90% in the general population believe age discrimination toward older workers is common.
Women are also more vulnerable. The Center for Workforce Inclusion reports that as women age, these biases intensify. This affects hiring and promotion decisions and perpetuates a wage gap, leaving older women economically vulnerable. The federal workforce in 2023 was 55% male and 45% female, compared to 53% male and 47% female in the total U.S. labor force.
While 8.8% of older men (age 65+) live in poverty, the U.S. Labor Department Women’s Bureau notes that 11.6% of women 65 and older live in poverty. This number rises to nearly 20% for Black and Hispanic women. For Black or Brown women over 50, losing a job wouldn’t just be a setback but a trapdoor into poverty.
Last year, almost 772,000 Americans were living on the streets and in their cars, mainly impacting families with children and those aged 55 and older. This represented an 18% increase over 2023.
Legal Challenges and Worker Backlash
President Trump offered a buyout to more than two million federal civilian employees to expedite the government cut. The White House said Thursday that 65,000 workers have accepted the agreement to quit now and still receive pay through September.
U.S. District Judge George O’Toole Jr. temporarily blocked the buyout from taking effect until he can hear both sides’ arguments at a Monday court hearing, the AP reported. Labor unions claim the plan is illegal and, along with more than a dozen states, have filed lawsuits.
“Purging the federal government of dedicated career civil servants will have vast, unintended consequences that will cause chaos for the Americans who depend on a functioning federal government,” according to the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), which claims the number of civil servants hasn’t meaningfully changed since 1970.
“This offer should not be viewed as voluntary,” AFGE warned. Between the flurry of anti-worker executive orders and policies, it is clear that the Trump administration’s goal is to turn the federal government into a toxic environment where workers cannot stay even if they want to.”
The annual attrition rate for government employees is around six percent. In fiscal 2023, those quitting constituted about 52% of the overall government-wide attrition, with retirements making up 48%.
It is unlikely that future data on the most impacted demographics will be reported due to Trump’s executive order for Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity. Historically, demographic reporting was part of DEI programming which was eradicated by the President’s executive order for Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing.
No Safety Nets for the Displaced
Due diligence is expected whenever businesses (including governments) anticipate transformational changes, whether mergers, acquisitions, or reductions in the workforce. A process of due diligence ensures legal compliance and evaluates risks and liabilities.
Even if the President’s buyout goes through, there are no real safety nets, especially for employees who are not yet eligible for social security or can access their retirement savings without penalty. Many of these employees will want or need to find reemployment.
Reemployment opportunities are limited for older workers, who will likely be most impacted. The National Bureau of Economic Research revealed workplace age discrimination as a leading indicator of financial instability and heightened poverty risk.
“Having a stable job with good wages is more important to most people than what’s in their 401(k),” Anne Colamosca, an economic commentator told ProPublica. “Getting to the point where you can collect Social Security and Medicare can be every bit as hard as trying to live on the benefits once you start getting them.”
Without safeguards, Musk’s cuts risk replicating corporate layoffs—where efficiency gains come at the cost of society’s most vulnerable. Without mandated reporting, the full impact on the older and Black workforce will difficult to capture.