It’s game time. The shouting is over, the points scored, and the winner declared. Most importantly, the promises have been made. Game on. The real game. Time to start delivering.
Although I preferred to see a different outcome in this election, there is nothing more important to me than to see my president succeed, no matter who he is (or who she may have been). So, Mr. President 2.0, the ball is in your hands, as is my fate and the fate of the world, and I hope you have the right game plan.
How We’ll Score The Game
There are countless ways to determine success in politics and government. By the time we eliminate the ones that are subjective, limited in scope, irrelevant, unreliable, non-credible, and obsolete, we’re left with precious few. But together, they are (a) simple, (b) manageable, and (c) meaningful.
I started writing as a contributor to Forbes.com on November 11, 2020, just a week after Joe Biden’s victory over you, Donald Trump, and have followed President Biden’s performance ever since. What stood out was how well he improved things in these four measurements: (1) Job creation, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Inflation, and (4) GDP growth. Individually, they’re all good stories; together, they tell a powerful tale of success – or failure, depending on how things turn out. These four must be in sync for the story to be a success; if so much as one is off, the whole thing falls apart.
Job creation
This has been the number one story of the last four years, with 17,000,000 jobs created – more, even, than any two-term president not named Clinton. The economy added an average of 355,000 jobs per month under the outgoing Biden administration, compared to 180,000 under Trump 1.0.
Unemployment rate
You handed Biden a 6.4% unemployment rate in January 2021. Biden is returning a 4.1% rate to you, Mr. Trump, this month.
Inflation
Because what went up hasn’t come down, eggs are still three bucks (or more) a dozen and a trip to the market causes chills and sweats. But what drove that craziness – an inflation rate of 7% in 2020 that spiked temporarily to 9.0% – is gone, you, Mr. Trump are being served an economy with a 2.9% inflation rate. Your threatened tariffs could blow that to pieces, though.
GDP
Growth, it is said, is the only evidence of life. And growth is what our economy showed, expanding our GDP from $23.5 trillion as of Q1 2021 to $27.7 as of Q4 2023 (2024 figures not in yet). Those numbers are envied the world over.
Life is simple but never easy.
Over the past 28 years as an independent career coach and job market observer, I have seen economies thrive and suffer, expand and shrink, prosper and implode. Through it all, I’ve noticed that when the above four measurements are all in tune, everyone benefits. It’s not easy but it sure is simple.