In just a few days, a new presidential administration will take the reins of power, and there is no question about one of the key issues that helped propel President-elect Trump back into the White House: immigration.
On the cusp of re-entering the Oval Office, Donald Trump has declared that he will fix what he considers to be the problems with immigration and immigration policy.
Most people agree that the current immigration system is broken and needs comprehensive reform. However, as with most thorny issues—and there is no doubt immigration is a thorny issue—the devil is in the details. For decades, one branch or another of the federal government has proposed large-scale solutions to fix the immigration system. Common to all of these efforts, they failed.
As the new administration embarks on its pledge to fix or remake the U.S. immigration system, it is essential to examine the data, especially the numbers illuminating the socioeconomic role of documented and undocumented immigrants. Immigration policy must align with the socio-economic contributions of these immigrants, who are nearly one-fifth of all workers in the U.S. All policies should be data-driven and not impede or weaken the country’s socioeconomic fabric and future.
A Snapshot of Immigrants’Contributions
As the incoming administration begins to structure its immigration policies and priorities, the following data provide a context for moving forward.
Latino GDP and Consumption
According to the 2024 Latino GDP Report, between 2010 and 2022, real Latino GDP in the U.S.increased by approximately 63 percent, while non-Latino GDP grew by nearly 22 percent. The report also finds that from 2010 to 2022, Latino consumption rose by about 63 percent, whereas non-Latino consumption increased by just under 23 percent.
Population Growth
Regarding population growth, the U.S. significantly relies on immigrants, particularly Latino immigrants. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, from 2022 to 2023, the population of the U.S. rose by nearly 1 percent, the fastest annual growth since 2001. Immigration is the driver of this growth.
Taxes
Immigrants, both documented and undocumented, make substantial contributions to public funds. The non-profit, non-partisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reports that in 2022, undocumented immigrants contributed $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. Nearly 39 percent of these funds were allocated to state and local governments.
At the same time, undocumented immigrants contributed $25.7 billion to the Social Security fund, $6.4 billion to Medicare, and $1.8 billion to unemployment insurance – all programs for which they are not eligible.
The Immigrant Worker
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2023, immigrants made up nearly 19 percent of the civilian labor force, a slight increase from the previous year. Latinos account for almost half of the immigrant labor force. Immigrant men have a labor force participation rate of 77.1 percent, compared to the 66.1 percent rate for native-born men.
Immigrant workers are more likely than native-born workers to hold manual, essential, often low-wage jobs in fields like maintenance, construction, and transportation. At the same time, they are less likely to work in management or professional positions. In 2023, the median weekly income for immigrants was $987, approximately 87% of what native-born workers earned.
Nearly 19 percent of immigrant workers have not completed high school, compared to about 3 percent of native-born workers who lack a high school diploma. Additionally, only about 15 percent of immigrant workers had some college education or have completed an associate degree, compared to 27 percent of native-born workers.
Entrepreneurship
UCLA economics professor Robert Fairlie highlights that among adults in the U.S., immigrants have the highest rates of new business creation. He adds that there is a significant spike in new business creation among Latino immigrants, who launch new ventures at more than double the rate of the overall U.S. population.
New businesses drive economic growth and create jobs for immigrants and native-born workers. JP Morgan Chase suggests Latino-owned businesses are the best bet for the nation’s economy.
As the new administration begins to reshape the U.S. immigration system and immigration policy, it is crucial to analyze the data, particularly that which highlights the socioeconomic contributions of documented and undocumented immigrants. Immigration policy must align with immigrants’ socio-economic contributions.
Creating Fear and Uncertainty
What precisely the President-elect and his team will do is, of course, still unknown, and that is creating anxiety and concern for immigrant individuals and their families, especially Latinos.
In a recent interview, a Latina in her late 50s, who chose to remain anonymous for privacy reasons, shared her and her family’s fears. She has five children and four grandchildren, all born in the U.S., while she and her husband were born in Mexico. Neither is a citizen. Her husband holds a green card, but she does not and is in the country without documentation. Four of her children have four-year college degrees, and she and her husband own a home in the suburbs.
She fears being sent back to Mexico for as long as ten years if the new president follows through with his pledge to start deporting undocumented immigrants on day one. Her children are afraid she will be deported. At the same time, her husband, who is ill, is worried there will be no one to care for him if she is sent back to Mexico. She worries that if she is deported, she will never again see her husband alive. She also wonders why the new President and those working for him want people like her to leave. She works cleaning houses. “If I am forced to leave, it’s not like people want my job, so I guess my clients won’t get their houses cleaned,” she says. She points out that she works hard and does not hurt anybody. She does not get any governmental support. She pays taxes, although she admits she uses a fake Social Security number. Her children remind her that she is paying into Social Security to help others, but she will never be able to collect any Social Security herself. She says she is okay with this: “It’s part of what I pay to this country for a better life for me and my kids.”
Possible Ways Forward
Immigrants, in general, and Latino immigrants in particular, play the largest role in driving population growth, economic growth, and consumption rates while having the highest labor force participation rate.
Immigration policy should focus on creating and supporting the socioeconomic stability of immigrants, American citizens, and the localities and states where they live. At the same time, it is necessary to acknowledge that the U.S., like any sovereign nation, must control its borders and establish immigration policies that serve the country’s and its citizens’ interests.
For the U.S., ensuring that the nation extends an appropriate welcome to immigrants requires a political commitment to economic growth and stability, a moral commitment to make people feel welcome and needed, and a commitment to creating stability, not uncertainty. At the same time, there must also be resource allocations for quality education from early childhood through graduate and professional schools. Support needs to be provided to immigrant entrepreneurs since they start new businesses and create jobs while also prioritizing policy initiatives that create long-term economic incentives to make essential jobs attractive. Finally, policies need to be developed recognizing the contributions of undocumented immigrants to retirement systems—like Social Security—which benefit others but offer no benefits to undocumented immigrants, while at the same time creating reasonable retirement funding options for all immigrants. Together, these measures will help to establish stable socioeconomic conditions for everyone.
The incoming Trump administration has an opportunity to establish a fair and just immigration system that recognizes the socioeconomic contributions of the nation’s immigrants and fosters stability for everyone by implementing data-based immigration policy reforms.