As you read this, new kinds of schools are being designed, launched and expanded. Many are utilizing the power of Artificial Intelligence. Take for example, Synthesis School and their AI-powered math tutor or Alpha School in Miami that uses AI to teach their children. Some of these schools have already evolved into competition for mainstream schooling. In the coming years, they may even render some traditional methods of education obsolete.
If you have already started to feel the ground shifting beneath your feet, you are not alone. It’s natural to question how mainstream schooling will survive in this competitive environment. But this isn’t enough. To survive is to react but our children need their schools to lead.
For schools navigating the uncharted waters of AI-driven transformation, this distinction is critical. What do you offer that sets you apart? How are you creating the future of education, rather than just following what’s always been done? How are you ensuring your leadership in the future? To do this, we don’t play the same game as everyone else but set a new standard.
The Five Forces
Michael E. Porter’s Five Forces model is widely respected in business strategy. It offers a powerful framework for analyzing and adapting to market dynamics. If we adapt it for education, it can become a strategic tool for school leaders, illuminating where competitive pressures are building, where opportunities are emerging and how your school can remain not just relevant but essential.
The classic Five Forces are:
- Competitive Rivalry
- Supplier Power
- Buyer Power
- Threat of Substitution
- Threat of New Entry
I have reframed them for educational institutions in an AI-powered world:
- The Education Landscape
- Capabilities
- Stakeholder Demands
- Alternative Forms of Education
- New Forms of Education
1. The Education Landscape
Your competition now extends beyond the other schools in your town. Global online platforms, AI-enabled learning models and tech-driven educational networks are rewriting the rules of engagement. This means grappling with a larger, often invisible set of rivals whose reach and resources are transforming expectations.
Here are some factors to consider:
Global Competition: Options such as Minerva’s Virtual Academy or new innovative homeschooling packages are pioneering alternative learning models that transcend borders, offering differentiated, flexible and personalized education experiences. These platforms are reshaping what students and parents expect from educational institutions.
AI as a Differentiator: Schools that embrace AI to provide personalized learning, adaptive assessments or predictive analytics can gain a distinct competitive edge.
Data-Driven Positioning: Advanced analytics can help schools better understand market shifts, monitor competitor moves and make data-driven decisions that place them ahead of the curve rather than reacting to it.
2. Capabilities
The capabilities that schools develop—or lack—determine their future. For many schools, AI has renewed relationships with technology providers, making them essential partners. Not all capabilities need to come from outside. Schools that build unique internal capabilities can stand out from the crowd.
Here are some factors to consider:
Internal vs. External Expertise: Deciding which competencies to cultivate internally (e.g., teacher training in AI tools, project-based learning or virtual learning methods) versus which to source externally (e.g., complex data systems) can help schools maintain adaptability and independence.
Scalability and Return On Investment: When choosing investments, school leaders must balance scalability with measurable returns. Tools that support adaptive learning and administrative efficiency aren’t just a tool; they’re a strategic asset.
Supplier Influence: If the pool of AI vendors is limited or if switching costs are prohibitive, suppliers hold greater power. By scrutinizing vendor options for cost-effectiveness, innovation and alignment with school goals, leaders can ensure they aren’t just at the mercy of technology but actively driving its implementation.
3. Stakeholder Demands
From students and parents to employers and government entities, all have a vested interest in the direction of innovation in schools. The adoption of new technology, such as AI, introduces new demands, as each group brings its own expectations.
Here are some factors to consider:
Diverse Expectations: While students may prioritize interactive and engaging experiences, parents might look for improved outcomes and employers may value skills adaptability. Meeting these diverse expectations is essential to building trust and loyalty among stakeholders.
Feedback Loops: Initiatives in education must be adaptable. Continuous feedback from stakeholders provides the insights needed to refine and align AI’s role in meeting evolving needs.
Transparency and Communication: Clear, ongoing communication about how initiatives enhance learning can reassure stakeholders and underscore the school’s commitment to staying relevant and effective.
4. Alternative Forms of Education
With flexible, affordable and highly accessible learning platforms, alternative educational models are not just an option but will become legitimate competition. Schools need to understand what makes these models appealing to effectively respond to or integrate aspects of them into their own offerings.
Here are some factors to consider:
Direct-to-Student Services: Platforms like Duolingo, self-guided AI tutors or even VR-based training don’t replace schools directly, but they do offer powerful alternatives. Schools that integrate these options can retain students who might otherwise turn to external solutions.
Flexibility and Accessibility: Alternative models thrive on offering flexible schedules, personalized pacing and cost-efficiency. Understanding which aspects make these models appealing can guide how traditional schools approach AI and innovation in their own services.
5. New Forms of Education
The barriers to entry for education are changing. The traditional structures that defined and guarded the field are giving way to new competitors, ranging from micro-schools to tech-enabled education startups. Schools must remain vigilant and adaptive.
Here are some factors to consider:
Emerging AI Startups: Specialized AI startups are creating solutions to address unique educational needs, such as AI-driven social-emotional learning, real-time language translation or even AI-enabled project-based learning. As new players enter the field, schools should identify ways to set themselves apart or even partner strategically with these innovators.
Partnerships Lowering Entry Barriers: With tech companies and educational providers teaming up, new options for learners are proliferating.
Strategic Flexibility: As new entrants bring AI-enhanced learning to the forefront, established schools can maintain a competitive edge by embracing flexibility in adopting new models, avoiding rigidity in their operational structures.
The power of the Five Forces isn’t just about identifying risks but seizing opportunities. For school leaders, it means looking beyond immediate challenges to understand and act on the broader forces at play.
Success won’t come from controlling these forces but from adapting to them with agility, insight and strategic foresight. Using this framework, you can pinpoint both threats and opportunities, setting your institution on a course to not just survive but lead in a transformed educational landscape.
This is an excerpt from the upcoming book Infinite Education: The Four Step Strategy For Change In An Age Of Artificial Intelligence.