In a key moment for the 2024 presidential race, a national poll from The New York Times and Siena College has found Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight edge over former President Donald Trump, positioning her as the candidate of change. The poll, which surveyed 3,385 likely voters and was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, shows Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent—a narrow margin within the poll’s margin of error. The results suggest a shift in voter sentiment, with Harris now seen as the candidate with a new vision.
In previous polls, Trump had maintained a lead on this narrative, but after losing the 2020 election and facing multiple legal challenges, his image as a disruptor appears to be losing some appeal with voters.
This marks the first time Harris has led Trump in a Times/Siena poll since July, when President Joe Biden officially dropped out of the race and Democrats united around Harris as his successor. With less than a month until the general election, the poll indicates the race for the White House could be one of the tightest in recent history.
For Trump, who has built his political identity as an outsider determined to disrupt the establishment and has used the slogan “Make America Great Again” as his political mantra, the recent poll shows a potential weakness because many voters now view Harris—not Trump—as the candidate representing a break from the status quo.
Harris’s growing recognition as a changemaker is a critical development in a race where many voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Poll after poll has shown that voters overwhelmingly believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction. In this climate, candidates who position themselves as fresh alternatives may have the upper hand, and Harris has tapped into this desire for new leadership by distancing herself from unpopular elements of Biden’s presidency.
One notable factor in Harris’s growing appeal is her increasing support among key voter demographics. According to the poll, she has strengthened her backing among older voters—a group previously skeptical of her candidacy. She has made small but notable gains among Republicans, with 9 percent of Republicans indicating they would support her, up from 5 percent the previous month. Though still a minority, this shift could be significant in a highly polarized election season.
Harris has also narrowed the gap on questions of temperament and trust, areas where Trump had previously held an advantage, and her lead can be partially attributed to her public appearances, including her performance in the presidential debate, where she emphasized the importance of the working class in America’s economy.
Despite Harris’s lead, Trump continues to hold an advantage on several key issues, most notably the economy. Many voters still trust Trump more on economic matters, and his ability to maintain the loyalty of his supporters, particularly in swing states, will be important in the final stretch.
With election day approaching, both campaigns are investing in efforts to mobilize voters, especially in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but voters will ultimately have to choose between two vastly different visions for the future. The question is whether Harris’s message of change and unity can resonate more deeply with voters than Trump’s call for a return to his populist agenda. Both campaigns are preparing for an intense final push, aiming to win over undecided voters who could ultimately decide the outcome of this closely watched election.