Home Investing Trainline Shares Surge 11% On Forecast Upgrades, Leads FTSE 250 Higher

Trainline Shares Surge 11% On Forecast Upgrades, Leads FTSE 250 Higher

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Rail ticket retailer Trainline watched its share price surge on Thursday as surging first-half ticket sales prompted an upgrade to earnings guidance.

At 331.80p per share, the FTSE 250 company was last trading 10.5% higher.

Despite strike action on the UK rail network, net ticket sales in its core market rose 15% between March and August, to £2 billion. This in turn pushed domestic revenues 17% higher, to £106 million.

Strength at home propelled group net ticket sales to £3 billion, up 14% year on year at constant currencies. This was ahead of Trainline’s 8% to 12% forecast for the full financial year.

Meanwhile, total revenues improved 17% at stable exchange rates, to £229 million, also topped expectations. A more muted 7% to 11% has been tipped for financial 2025.

The travel firm said that “given the strength of performance in the first half, for the full year Trainline expects net ticket sales and revenue growth at the top end of their respective guidance ranges.”

Trainline added that “adjusted EBITDA is now expected to exceed the previously stated guidance range.” The firm predicted earnings growth of between 2.4% and 2.5% of net ticket sales back in May.

Strength In Southern Europe

In Trainline’s international markets, net ticket sales rose 6% at constant exchange rates, while revenues improved 21%.

It said that “Spain and Italy grew fastest — markets where carrier competition is most widespread — with combined net ticket sales up 23% YoY as Trainline continued to position itself as the aggregator of choice.”

Combined net ticket sales in France and Germany dipped 3%, however, due to restricted market spend and Olympics-related travel disruption in its Gallic market.

Sales generated through Trainline’s mobile app “continued to grow strongly,” it said. These made up 67% of international sales in the first half, up from 62% a year earlier.

What They Said

Chief executive Jody Ford said that “our strong performance shows how our relentless focus on innovation is helping more customers to choose digital ticketing. Competition between rail carriers is growing across Europe and as the aggregator of choice we deliver the value and convenience customers want. “

He added that “this is most clearly demonstrated in Spain, where we have tripled net ticket sales in the last two years, with over one million customers transacting in the last 12 months alone.”

Analyst Adam Vettese of eToro commented that “Trainline sales are tracking ahead of analyst estimates with more consumers switching to digital tickets being one of the main drivers. It may not feel like it for many commuters but there has also been a reduced effect of strike action in comparison to last year.”

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